The COVID-19 Recession May be Over

Trader Gregory Rowe works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Monday, Feb. 24, 2020. Stocks are opening sharply lower on Wall Street, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 700 points, as virus cases spread beyond China, threatening to disrupt the global economy. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

There’s been plenty of misery over the last few weeks.

The economy closed up shop.  Businesses closed their doors.  Schools ended their years early.  Millions of people lost their jobs.  In fact, according to the latest ADP report, the U.S. lost another 2.76 million workers in May 2020 thanks to the coronavirus.

That was well below the estimated loss of 8.75 million.

Still, the loss “is obviously an awful number, but not as catastrophic as expected,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.  Plus, with economies reopening, and people trying to get back to life as it was, the worst may have been priced in.

“The good news is I think the recession is over, the Covid-19 recession is over, barring another second wave, a major second wave, or real serious policy errors,” said Zandi, as quoted by CNBC.  The bad news, he added, is that “the recovery will be a slog until there’s a vaccine or therapy that’s distributed and adopted widely.”

The other good news is that the pace of layoffs appears to have slowed considerably, and more people are heading back to work. From here, we could potentially see job growth pick up lost momentum in June and July.



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